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Why we might need a resilient local economy really soon?

I'm posting this because I will reference this blog during the general meeting today..

The whole point of the blog is to answer the question: WHY? in a bit more depth. There will not be enough time to even begin to address these issues during the meeting. We will focus on the what and how.

Last June I was reading Rob Hopkin's blog: Transition Culture (http://transitionculture.org/) and came across an article about "Stoneleigh's talk" at the Transition Conference in the UK. I read this; then followed the links - read or listened... I mentioned this to a few folks during the SusNE June Celebration and ending up compiling a brief list of relevant links and commentary (below) because so many folks wanted to see this.. Some of the links came from others emails back and forth..

Stoneleigh's talk was extremely unsettling to the folks at the UK Transition Conference. Normally very optimistic and postive Transition folks that had already connected most of the dots, had a few dots connected for them that they hadn't considered... and realized there may be some urgency to the Transition tasks..

I'm not sure all the links are still functional..

Stoneleigh’s Transition talk

Here’s the link to the talk Stoneleigh, aka NicoleFoss, presented at the Transition Conference on June 12th:

http://sheffield.indymedia.org.uk/2010/06/453356.html

the whole thing is pretty long, about 1 ½ hrs for the talk and over an hour for the Q&A in two parts…

there were once fotos of the presentation slides but they now seem to be gone…

…and not sure how long even this will stay posted…? Its not (at least easily) locatable from the sheffieldindymedia site..

Hopefully there will be a better version eventually with the slides!?

…and for reference here’s their (Stoneleigh and Ilargi’s) website: http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/

This was where I got clued in to the fact that a crash was imminent in ’07-‘08, as a number of other sites I read were pointing here…

Here is where I originally linked to the talk:

http://transitionculture.org/2010/06/14/my-conference-shaun-chamberlin-on-stoneleighs-peak-oilfinance-talk/

..and (last I cheked) it no longer links to the talk!… There is a lot of useful info in the blog and some in the comments (still ongoing) including a response to what is a gilt – some kinda UK bond similar to short term US bonds

Two of the slides from her talk are here: http://transitionradio.posterous.com/a-few-of-the-terrifying-realities-detailed-by)

…and some can be found in the primers (see below)

Here's a blogpost about someone named Charlotte's thoughts about the Conference's reaction after the speech: http://transitionnorwich.blogspot.com/2010/06/stoneleigh-effect.html ..and here's Stoneleigh's Facebook page: http://www.facebook.com/nmfoss?v=wall for those of you that do Facebook stuff..

..and finally…do watch this!! self explanatory:

http://transitionculture.org/2010/06/22/final-film-from-transition-network-conference-2010-reflections-on-stoneleighs-talk/

I personally wouldn’t do anything immediately until you’ve thought about and researched this some. I do feel this is important, but Sue and I are still just discussing…

For more info on the arguments pro/con inflation/deflation you could start with (biased by their opinion of course) the Automatic Earth’s primer articles. Go to their page then head down the right column until you get to primers and start there.. ..you could start with: http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/2009/07/july-23-2009-prime-rh...

which is sorta a TOC and go to the articles of interest

Remember she said maybe 6 months to 2 years out, but I wouldn’t wait more than a couple of months to decide…

Additionally you may want to read about the (last and not so) Great Depression and a good start might be Galbraith’s treatise (I haven’t read it yet – who’s got time?): http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Great_Crash,_1929

…see also:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Debt_deflation (Wikipedia is an excellent resource taken with a jaundiced eye..)

More general long term info here: http://www.chrismartenson.com/crashcourse

this is a grueling, but excellent introduction (several hours of lectures) to what's happening..

Anyway, no panic please – remember what she says about headless chickenz!

Update – more relevant info:

..and here's a little humorous (very) short video to keep in mind when putting money in bank: http://thestockmasters.com/node/1255 (with three interesting links to other shorts in the same episode)

..and from the Transition folks, a conference wrap-up, which clearly indicates the incredibly strong influence Stonleigh’s talk had, even though most of the folks already knew about all the “dots” – obviously hadn’t fully connected them yet:

http://transitionculture.org/2010/06/25/an-inside-view-on-the-2010-transition-network-conference-by-sophy-banks/

good bits in this to mull…

…and here’s a relevant figure from one of Stoneleigh’s primers:

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/4629

which was one of the slides at the talk. It demonstrates the general form of a “bubble”…

We are maybe somewhere between the “bull trap” and on the way to “return to normal”

You know, the “green sprouts”….

Another Update:

…more discussion of Stoneleigh’s talk at the Transition Conference:

http://www.transitionus.org/blog/our-end-economy-moment

including some relevant graphs (similar to some of those she presented)….

This just in:

http://www.ameliasmagazine.com/earth/transition-towns-conference-2010-the-automatic-earth-stoneleigh-lecture-on-the-financial-crisis/2010/08/06/

a link just sent to me by Leo that gives a brief synopsis of Stoneleigh’s presentation with beautiful illustrations and many more links and a few film clips

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Comment by John Samaras & Sue McGann on September 24, 2010 at 9:25am
...so I just updated this blog with a link (at the end) that Leo sent
that has an excellent brief synopsis of Stoneleigh's talk (with illustrations).

So... if you don't have the hour an a half to listen to her talk right now..
at least read this link and see the film clips.
Cheers,
John

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